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Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/17115

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Title
On the Long-Run Equilibrium Relationship among Health Care Expenditures, Public Pension and Social Insurance Burden Rate in Japan
Creator
Creator Name
Kumagai, Narimasa Kumagai, Narimasa
熊谷, 成将 熊谷, 成将
クマガイ, ナリマサ クマガイ, ナリマサ
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Kinki University
Editor
Contributor Name
世代間問題研究プロジェクト（世代間問題の経済分析） = Economic Analysis of Intergenerational Issues, Project on Intergenerational Equity
Contributor Name
一橋大学経済研究所世代間問題研究機構 = Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Key Word
cointegration
dynamic OLS
price elasticity of health care
variance decomposition
vector error correction model
Abstract
Despite a decrease in the number of working generations supporting Japan's social security system, the relationship between public pension benefits and health care expenditures since the inception of universal health insurance system has not been explored. We obtained one stable long-run equilibrium relationship among those three variables over the period from 1966 to 2002. We employed the forecast error variance decomposition to examine the determination of social insurance burden rate. It is found that health care shock was important for the long-run determination of social insurance burden rate. Because it appears that a free health service system for the elderly (health care shock) caused the increase in the doctor's consultation, we estimated the health care function to analyze price policy in the health care sector. We finally accepted the dynamic OLS model with lead lags as an aggregated health care function. The price elasticity of health care has declined in absolute value since the universal health insurance system started, and it has been around 0.6 since the early 1980s. The policy which eliminated health care fees for the elderly in the 1970s was a mistake since the elderly increased their health care expenditures. The out-of-pocket expenses for health care of the elderly should have been raised in the 1970s.
Publisher
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Issued Date
2009-02
Language
English(eng)
Resource Type
technical report
Version Type
VoR
Is Part OfRelation -
Related Title
PIE/CIS Discussion Paper ; No. 413
Relation
Related Identifier
URI
  http://cis.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/English/
Related Identifier
URI
  http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/pie/stage2/Japanese/
Number of Pages
14
Sponsorship
科学研究費補助金（特別推進研究） = Grant-in-Aid for Specially Promoted Research
Appears in Collections
PIE/CIS Discussion paper
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/17115