Regional Monetary Coordination in Asia after the Global Financial Crisis: Comparison in Regional Monetary Stability between ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+3+3

This paper analyzes how much deviation we have among Asian currencies which include the India rupee, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar, given that we are discussing East Asia Community based on ASEAN+3(Japan, China, and South Korea)+3(India, Australia, and New Zealand). We investigate whether intra-regional exchange rates increase in instability or deviation when the additional three countries (India, Australia, and New Zealand) join into the ASEAN+3. Contribution of each currency to weighted average of AMU-wide Deviation Indicators shows that movements in the Japanese yen have contributed to those in the weighted average of the AMU-wide Deviation Indicators over time during the sample period from January 2000 to January 2010. Moreover, we use concepts of β and σ convergences in the context of economic growth to analyze statistically convergence or divergence for the ASEAN+3+3 currencies. The addition of Indian rupee into the ASEAN+3 currencies make the regional currencies unstable before and during the global financial crisis. Moreover, comparison between ASEAN+3+3 and ASEAN+3+Indian currencies shows that the addition of only Indian rupee into them is relatively more stable than the addition of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar as well as the Indian rupee since September 2008. It is worthy to consider that India will join the Chiang Mai Initiative to manage currency crises while the monetary authorities will conduct surveillance over stability of the intra-regional exchange rates in the near future.

Hitotsubashi University Research Project of Policies for East Asia

2010-04

English(eng)

technical report

VoR

25

Fukino foundation

Fukino Project Discussion paper series

https://hdl.handle.net/10086/18486