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Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/23069

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Title
Future Scenario of International Transport Based on Questionnaire Survey by the Delphi Method
Creator
Creator Name
YOSHIDA, Tsuneaki YOSHIDA, Tsuneaki
吉田, 恒昭 吉田, 恒昭
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
University of Tokyo
Creator Name
SHIBASAKI, Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Ryuichi
柴崎, 隆一 柴崎, 隆一
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management
Creator Name
NEMOTO, Toshinori NEMOTO, Toshinori
根本, 敏則 根本, 敏則
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Hitotsubashi University
Creator Name
HANAOKA, Shinya HANAOKA, Shinya
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Tokyo Institute of Technology
Creator Name
ONO, Kenji ONO, Kenji
小野, 憲司 小野, 憲司
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Creator Name
ONODERA, Hitoshi ONODERA, Hitoshi
小野寺, 均 小野寺, 均
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Pacific Consultants Co. LTD.
Key Word
Future Scenario
Delphi Method
International Transport
East Asia
Abstract
For a discussion on a future vision of international transport infrastructure and forecast on future trade and cargo demand, predicted figures for variables in socio-economics and infrastructure should be given as prerequisites. They will be simply estimated by extrapolation of past trends or based somewhat on econometric methodology. However, these figures may be very uncertain and difficult to estimate, especially in long-term forecasting with large changes over time. In this paper, following Yoshida et al. (2009a) discussing on future scenario of international economics, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the international transport field targeting many experts based on the Delphi method which seeks to consolidate expert opinions by repeating questions to the same respondents. The most probable future scenario for international transport in East Asia was summarized in order to contribute to the discussion on the direction they will take in the future and how they ought to be.
Description
The 8th International Conference of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Indonesia, November, 16-19, 2009, Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Publisher
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Issued Date
2009-11
Language
English(eng)
Resource Type
conference paper
Version Type
VoR
NCID
BA3732547X
Source Title
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
Appears in Collections
050 Conference Papers and Presentations (General) = 会議・学会資料(全般)
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/23069