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Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/28281

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Title
Forecasting Life Expectancy: Evidence from a New Survival Function
Creator
Creator Name
Wong, Chi Heem Wong, Chi Heem
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
National University of Singapore
Creator Name
Tsui, Albert K Tsui, Albert K
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
National University of Singapore
Editor
Contributor Name
Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Key Word
Lee-Carter model
Life expectancy
Mortality
Survival probability
Abstract
We propose a new survival function to forecast life expectancies at various ages. The proposed model comprises the youth-to-adulthood component and the old-to-oldest-old component. It is able to closely fit adult survivorship of the US men and women in the period from 1950 to 2010. We find evidence that the forecasting performance of life expectancies by the proposed model compares favorably with those obtained from the popular Lee-Carter model (1992) and the shifting logistic model proposed by Bongaarts (2005).
Publisher
Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
Issued Date
2015-06
Language
English(eng)
Resource Type
technical report
Version Type
VoR
Is Part OfRelation -
Related Title
CEI Working Paper Series, No. 2015-1
Relation
Related Identifier
URI
  http://cei.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/English/index.html
Number of Pages
10
Appears in Collections
CEI Working Paper Series
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/28281