Historical IO tables of Japan for 1935, 1951, 1960 and 1970 have been used to observe the characteristics of the nation’s industrialization process during the period covered by the tables. For this purpose the tables have been adjusted, in as much as possible, to share the identical concepts as well as the same industrial classification as listed below: agriculture, forestry and fishery (Agr), mining (Mng), foods (Fds), textile and clothing (Txtl), woods and wood products (Wds), pulp and paper products (Plp), publishing and printing (Pbl), leather and rubber products (Lthr), chemicals (Chm), ceramics (Crm), metal products (Mtl). machinery (Mchn), other manufacturing (Oth-mfg), building and civil engineering (Bldg), electricity, gas and water supply (Elct), commerce, financing, insurance and real estate (Cmr), transportation and communication (Trsp), government (Gvt), other services (Oth-srv), stationery goods supply and packaging (Stry), and unknown (Unkw) Section I describes the issues concerned by the present paper as well as its major findings, whereas section II explains in detail how the basic data were prepared. A summary of main findings of Section I follows. (1) Industrial structure (respective industry’s share in total product value or in total value added) [a] Highest in Cmr, indicating high contribution of service sector such as financing; [b] Mchn and Mtl, having once fell behind Txtl, went up remarkably in the high-growth era; [c] Txtl, a typical final demand product, continued to grow until the end of WWII, the stating point of its landslide; [d] Fds recorded high scores, having been supported by Agr, a typical upstream industry; [e] Bldg scored high since the high-growth era, closely following Mtl and Mchn (2) Foreign trade (industry’s export [or import] share in total export [or import], and proportion of industry’s export [or import] in total domestic demand)[a] Export share of Txtl declined consistently, while that of Mtl and of Mchn went up;[b] Import share of Mng increased consistently, while that of Mchn and of Trsp increased during the highgrowth era, and that of Agr registered a high share temporarily in 1951;[c] Txtl gave up its role as the leader of export by the end of the high-growth era, having been replaced by Mchn;[d] Import dependency of Mng increased significantly after WWII, being followed by Agr.(3) Effects, if any, of technological change[a] Rasmussen’s index of power of dispersion(influence of an increase in industry’s unit output on the final demand) is topped by Stry, followed by Plp, Mtl, Txtl and Bdg;[b] Rasmussen’s index of sensitivity of dispersion (degree of responsiveness of industry’s output to a change in the final demand) is topped by Cmr, followed by Chm, Mtl, Plp, Agr and Mchn;[c] Extent of technological change (changes in aij in the Leontief matrix) ―― [c-1] was constantly high in Chm, [c-2] became significant during the high-growth era in Bdg, Mng (due to increase in energy demand as well as rising need for minimizing environmental disruption) , and (unexpectedly!) in Fds, [c-3] declined by the end of high-growth era in Mtl, Txl, Agr, Pbl and Mchn (while Mchn keeping its relatively high level) ;[d] Triangularization results of IO tables indicates industry’s relative position in the flow of production process:[d-1] upstream were Trsp and Cmr, and also Chm in the post-WWII (especially post-high-growth) era, [d-2] downstream was Txtl, [d-3] shifted from downstream to upstream in Mtl and Mchm, [d-4] shifted from downstream to in-between in Pbl. All in all, one may summarize that Japanese industrialization during the 1935-70 years was contributed much by the service sector, while it was, in production sphere, led significantly by machinery production, whose role however was increasingly challenged by chemicals toward the end of the high-growth era.
|