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Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/30369

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Title
Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth?
Creator
Creator Name
Lee, Hyun-Hoon Lee, Hyun-Hoon
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Kangwon National University
Creator Name
Shin, Kwanho Shin, Kwanho
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Korea University
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Hitotsubashi University
Editor
Contributor Name
Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University
Key Word
population aging
working-age population
economic growth
nonlinearity
developed countries
JEL
J11
O47
O57
Abstract
Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries. This nonlinear effect of aging is mainly driven by the fact that we use old-age population share as a proxy for aging. If we use lower working-age population share as a proxy for aging, the nonlinear relationship disappears: working-age population share is positively related to economic growth in a linear way.
Publisher
Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University
Issued Date
2019-04
Language
English(eng)
Resource Type
technical report
Version Type
VoR
Is Part OfRelation -
Related Title
Discussion paper series ; No. HIAS-E-86
Number of Pages
38
Sponsorship
support by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government(NRF-2017S1A5A2A03069146)
Appears in Collections
Discussion paper series / Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/30369