A Quantitative Analysis for Projections of Japan’s Public Assistance: "Longevity" and "Decrease the premium payment ratio for the National Pension"

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the future public assistance expenditures in Japan based on the assumption of multiple different scenarios. We use the analysis model proposed by Ueda [2012], EC [2015] and Yoneta et al. [2015]. We also estimate considering longevity pointed out by Nakazawa et al. [2015]. We show projections of Japan’s public assistance with breadth by estimating based on three different scenario, "Baseline", "Decrease the premium payment ratio for the national Pension program scenario (DP scenario)" and "Longevity scenario". The total public assistance expenditures of GDP at baseline will rise from 0.7% in FY2015 to 0.9% in FY2050. This can be said to indicate the effect of aging. On the other hand, in the "DP scenario", it was estimated to be 1.6% in FY2050 and 0.6% in the "Longevity scenario". In the "DP scenario", it is 0.7% higher than the baseline. This suggests that the reduction in the premium payment ratio for the national pension has a large influence on the public assistance expenditures in the trial calculation by the mechanical method of this paper, and the possibility of future fiscal sustainability is clearly concerned. Also, in the "Longevity scenario", it is 0.3% lower than baseline. This is lower than the total public assistance expenditures of GDP in FY2015, which is the starting point. In other words, even if the aging progressed, considering the growth of healthy life expectancy due to longevity, the fiscal impact on the public assistance is alleviated to a certain extent. It can be said that the fiscal sustainability is secured.

日本経済政策学会第74回全国大会, 亜細亜大学（東京都）, 2017年5月27日（土）～28日（日）, 日本経済政策学会

2017-05-28

English(eng)

conference paper

AM

14

050 Conference Papers and Presentations (General) = 会議・学会資料(全般)

https://hdl.handle.net/10086/30523