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このアイテムへのリンクには次のURLをご利用ください: https://doi.org/10.15057/25776
このアイテムへのリンクには次のURLをご利用ください: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/25776

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Title
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS OF JAPANESE HOUSEHOLDS: MICRO EVIDENCE FROM A CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
Creator
Creator Name
HORI, MASAHIRO HORI, MASAHIRO
堀, 雅博 堀, 雅博
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Hitotsubashi University
Creator Name
KAWAGOE, MASAAKI KAWAGOE, MASAAKI
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Cabinet Office, Japanese Government
Key Word
inflation expectations
consumer survey
JEL
D84
E31
Abstract
Economists agree that economic agents' expectations are crucially important in determining macroeconomic outcomes. However, mainstream macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational. Against this background, this study examines the properties of Japanese households' inflation expectations using micro-based inflation expectations data from the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey Covering All of Japan. Our analyses show that actual inflation expectations by Japanese households are not rational in the sense that they are upward biased, and individual households appear not to instantaneously incorporate into their expectations information that is freely available from news reports on the views of professional forecasters.
Publisher
Hitotsubashi University
Issued Date
2013-06
Language
英語(eng)
Resource Type
departmental bulletin paper（紀要論文）
Version Type
VoR
selfDOI
10.15057/25776
ISSN
0018-280x
NCID
AA00207547
Source Title
Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics
Volume Number
54
Issue Number
1
Page Start
17
Page End
38
Appears in Collections
Vol. 54, no. 1 (Jun. 2013)
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/25776