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Number of Access this item:39（2024-11-24 13:34 Counts）

Identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/84154

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Title
Real-Time Detection of Hidden Fiscal Unsustainability in the EU
Creator
Creator Name
MATSUOKA, Hideaki MATSUOKA, Hideaki
松岡, 秀明 松岡, 秀明
Affiliation
Affiliation Name
Hitotsubashi University
Key Word
Real-time data
Fiscal Reaction Function
Heterogeneous Panel Regression Kink with an unknown threshold
JEL
E43
H63
Abstract (distribution restricted)
If data revisions lead to the concern about the government solvency, the changes in the market expectation may trigger the crisis. This study investigates how significantly revisions from earlier data have influenced the evaluation of fiscal sustainability in the EU through a novel approach: a heterogeneous panel regression kink with an unknown threshold. The main findings are threefold. First, the fiscal responses to government debt in real time for the peripheral countries of the Euro Area are stronger than the fiscal responses in the revised data. Second, the threshold debt level for the fiscal consolidation occurring in real-time is more optimistic than that in the revised data. Third, the fiscal consolidation in the peripheral countries of the Euro Area with moderate to high debt is procyclical.
Description
First Version : June 2024; Last revised : October 2024
Publisher
Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University
Issued Date
2024-06-03
Language
English(eng)
Resource Type
technical report
Version Type
VoR
Is Part OfRelation -
Related Title
Discussion papers ; No. 2024-02
ReplacesRelation -
Related Identifier
HDL
  https://hdl.handle.net/10086/83094
Related Title
This is a revised version of https://hdl.handle.net/10086/83094.
Number of Pages
42
Sponsorship
This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP24K04831.
Appears in Collections
Discussion papers / Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University
URL
https://hdl.handle.net/10086/84154