ロシア経済の成長と多様化

O47

This paper attempts to describe the further potential for growth and diversification in the Russian economy. First, it presents the author's forecast of the long run growth of the Russian economy for 2008-2020, based on his estimates of a production function. Second, this paper provides analyses of contributions of TFP and capital (supply side), earnings from terms-of-trade effects (income side) and demand for domestically produced goods (expenditure-demand side). Third, using revised input-output tables the official short term projections, it explores the present level of diversification of the Russian economy and provides a multi-sector growth-accounting analysis. Finally, this paper presents some preliminary observations on the role of auto industry in Russian diversification away from independence on oil and gas.