Fertility, Labor Market and Public Policy in Japan

J18

First we constructed a Weighted Fertility Rate index using the Census Data that can serve as a good measure of fertility for most municipalities for which raw TFR data are not available. We then applied the standard specification that had been widely used to account for the changes in TFR, using WFR index as our dependent variable. Our estimation result shows that the weakening preference for children is gradually coming to an end after year 2000, but the decline in fertility experienced during 2000-2005 was caused by the labor market, including increased female labor force participation, and increased uncertainty in the employment for younger male workers. Compared with the existing studies, the increased data size, the reduction in community heterogeneities, and the better quality of Census Data of our study seem to have produced more precise estimation results.