Russian Economic Growth at a Turning Point -Views from the Supply and Income Sides-

This paper provides the author's preliminary results of the analyses of supply and income sides of Russia's economic growth at a turning point. First, this paper clarifies that robustness of Russia's growth is rather independent of changes in the world oil price. Second, the paper provides analyses of the supply side of Russia's growth by employing a Solow-type of growth accounting. This includes (1) a critical reappraisal of the Goldman-Sachs report on BRICs, (2) the author's own macro growth accounting based on estimates of capital stock, and (3) the author's own multi-sectoral growth accounting based on reconstructed input-output tables and capital stock vectors. This paper develops further the theoretical analysis of effects of terms of trade on the GDI and applies the theory to Russia. Finally, a high growth potential for Russia is forecast based on these macro supply side results.